Continuing Conflicts that Create Refugees February 2009
Four actual or potential conflict situations around the world deteriorated and two improved in February 2009, according to the new issue of the International Crisis Group's monthly bulletin CrisisWatch.
Deteriorated Situations
Bangladesh, Guadeloupe, North Korea, Sri Lanka: Download the full report CW67PDF
Bangladesh, Members of paramilitary border patrol force Bangladesh Rifles (BDR) led violent mutiny at their Dhaka HQ 25 Feb, taking hostage some 130 senior military officials and killing over 70; many still missing as CrisisWatch went to press. Move came after BDR members blocked from presenting PM Hasina with pay and staffing demands, including removal of military officials from BDR posts. Mutiny spread to barracks across country even as some Dhaka BDR guards handed over weapons 26 Feb. Military 27 Feb reiterated support for govt as latter promised tribunals to fast-track mutiny cases, easing fears of coup. Parliamentary work stalled for 17 days as opposition BNP continued complaint over seating arrangements until 19 Feb. Cross-party committee 31 Jan said
Sri Lanka, 23 Feb offer by LTTE for ceasefire without laying down arms. Conditions for some 200,000 civilians trapped by fighting grew desperate, as govt offensive met with stiff LTTE resistance. Medical facilities, supplies virtually non-existent, food and water critically low; attacks even in govt-declared safe zone. Human Rights Watch estimated 2,000 dead, 5,000 wounded since early Jan fall of Killinochchi. Despite Tiger efforts to block civilians from fleeing area of fighting, some 35,000 succeeded in reaching govt camps in Vavuniya. UN humanitarian chief John Holmes expressed concerns over camp conditions after govt-led tour 20 Feb, urged respect for humanitarian law by both sides. SL govt 12 Feb rejected naming of special envoy by UK, former defence minister Des Browne. 28 killed, 90 wounded in LTTE suicide bombing 9 Feb near Vishvamadu as civilians were being screened by military; 2 LTTE aircraft shot down in Colombo air raid 20 Feb, 1 crashing into tax office, killing 2. 21 Sinhala farmers shot dead in eastern village by LTTE gunmen.
North Korea, Tense month following late-Jan announcement by Pyongyang voiding political and military agreements with South (ROK), invalidating western sea boundary, putting South military on high alert in Yellow Sea. Speculation rose concerning possible planned NK missile test; Pyongyang 25 Feb claimed launching "satellite" instead. ROK press 17 Feb reported NK operating small uranium enrichment plant west of Yongbyon. At start of inaugural trip abroad to Asia 15 Feb, U.S. State Sec. Clinton signalled "great openness" if NK denuclearises, readiness to help with food, energy assistance; but warned days later in Tokyo any missile test "unhelpful" for improving relations with U.S. NK leader Kim Jong-il told Chinese visitor NK still committed to 6-Party denuclearisation process; 6-Party working group met 19-20 Feb in Moscow on NE Asia peace and security mechanism, agreed peninsula should be denuclearised. Stephen Bosworth, former Seoul Ambassador, appointed U.S. special envoy to replace Christopher Hill; due to visit Six-Party capitals early Mar.
Guadeloupe, Demonstrations over rising cost of living turned violent as protesters clashed with police. 1 civilian killed in Pointe-à-Pitre 17 Feb; rioters shot at police in following nights. Unrest stemmed from general strike called by trade unions Jan demanding minimum wage increase. Situation largely calmed after France 18 Feb sent 4 military police units, President Sarkozy 19 Feb announced $730m aid package. Union leaders 27 Feb agreed deal with govt on raised minimum wage; 28 Feb said talks over lowering food, energy prices "going well", strike could end "soon".
Unchanged Situations
Afghanistan, Algeria, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Basque Country (Spain), Belarus , Bolivia, Bosnia, Burundi, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Chechnya, Colombia, Côte d‚Ivoire, Cyprus, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ecuador, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Ethiopia, Ethiopia/Eritrea, Georgia, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Haiti, India (non-Kashmir), Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Israel/Occupied Palestinian Territories, Kashmir, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kosovo, Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, Liberia, Macedonia, Madagascar, Mauritania, Moldova, Morocco, Myanmar/Burma, Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan), Nepal, Niger, Nigeria, North Caucasus (non-Chechnya), Pakistan, Philippines, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Serbia, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Taiwan Strait, Tajikistan, Thailand, Timor-Lest e, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Uganda, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Venezuela, Western Sahara, Yemen
Conflict Risk Alerts for March 2009
Bangladesh, Sudan
CrisisWatch highlights Bangladesh as a significant conflict risk alert for March, as tensions within and surrounding the military continue to simmer. In Sudan, the International Criminal Court decision, due in early March, on whether to issue an arrest warrant for President Bashir presents both an opportunity to move towards resolving the conflict in Darfur and a potential trigger for increased violence.
Conflict Resolution Opportunity
Sudan
CrisisWatch N°67, 1 March 2009
Source for this page:
CrisisWatch |