June 2006: Continuing conflicts that produce refugees
Ten actual or potential conflict situations around the world deteriorated
in May 2006, according to the June issue of CrisisWatch.
http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?l=1&id=4147
Afghanistan saw its worst violence since 2001, with some 350 insurgents,
civilians and security personnel killed across its southern provinces.
Somalia there was heavy fighting in Mogadishu between the Islamic
Courts militia and the U.S.-backed Alliance for the Restoration
of Peace and Counter-Terrorism, leaving over 200 dead.
DR Congo, tensions increased ahead of 30 July elections, and clashes
in Ituri province killed 60.
Timor-Leste, security collapsed after renegade soldiers clashed
with security forces.
Israel/Occupied territories, mounting violence in Gaza fuelled
by a power struggle between Fatah and Hamas loyalists raised fears
of civil war.
Lebanon experienced its worst cross-border fighting in six years
after rockets were fired into northern Israel in apparent response
to the killing of an Islamic Jihad group leader in southern Lebanon.
Brazil, Mali, Sri Lanka and Turkey, experienced deteriorating
situations.
Unchanged Situations
Albania, Algeria, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Basque Country
(Spain), Belarus, Bolivia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Burundi, Central
African Republic, Chad, Chechnya (Russia), Cyprus, Ecuador, Egypt,
Ethiopia, Ethiopia/Eritrea, Fiji, Georgia, Guinea, India (non-Kashmir),
Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kashmir, Kazakhstan, Kosovo, Kyrgyzstan,
Liberia, Macedonia, Maldives, Mauritania, Moldova, Myanmar/Burma,
Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan), North Caucasus (non-Chechnya),
North Korea, Northern Ireland (UK), Pakistan, Peru, Philippines,
Rwanda, Serbia, Sierra Leone, Somaliland (Somalia), Sudan, Swaziland,
Syria, Taiwan Strait, Tajikistan, Thailand, Turkmenistan, Uganda,
Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Venezuela, Western Sahara, Yemen, Zimbabwe.
Improved Situations
Seven conflict situations showed improvement in May 2006. The new
government of Nepal and Maoist insurgents met for first peace
talks since 2003. In Côte d‚Ivoire, the twin processes
of ex-rebel disarmament and voter identification began in preparation
for October elections. Montenegro held a peaceful and successful
independence referendum, which should on balance increase stability
in the western Balkans. Nigeria reaffirmed its constitutional
process as President Olusegun Obasanjo announced he would step
down in 2007 after the senate rejected a constitutional amendment
to allow a controversial third term. In Colombia, incumbent President
Alvaro Uribe won the presidential election, reinforcing his strong
stance against rebels and suggesting a move toward stability.
In the Solomon Islands, the situation improved after the opposition
leader won a secret parliamentary ballot, following April mass
riots. In a positive move toward peace, René Préval
was inaugurated as President of Haiti, amid improving security
on the ground.
Conflict Risk Alert
For June 2006, CrisisWatch identifies Israel/Occupied Territories
as a Conflict Risk Alert, or situation at particular risk of
new or significantly escalated conflict in the coming month.
Conflict Resolution Opportunities have been identified for Basque
Country (Spain) and Uganda.
End of Bulletin:
Source for this Message:
International Crisis Group
http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm |
